Venezuela, once the wealthiest country in South America, is currently undergoing one of the greatest political and economic crises in history. While this has shocked many, it should be of no surprise that Venezuela is having trouble staying afloat.
The decades of corruption, mismanagement and disillusionment have finally caught up with Venezuela, and the oil mine is no longer the safety net it once was. Grocery stores are empty, oil is worth less than water, and crime is at an all time high. Hopeless and terrified of what’s to come, the people are crying for help from whomever is willing to give it to them. What once seemed to be a flourishing and successful socialist country, has reached its final days. Who is to blame? What does the future hold for Venezuela? While the answer to the latter is unknown, history reminds us of how long ago this all began. This crisis has been decades in the making and here’s why. The crisis in Venezuela, explained The state of affairs in Venezuela has steadily deteriorated since 2014. The living conditions are abysmal, and the country is in a humanitarian crisis. With hyperinflation estimated to reach over 10 million percent this year, Venezuelans struggle each day to pay for food and basic necessities (Cohen). Statistics show that about a quarter of the population does not eat three meals per day, and over 82% live in poverty (Trombetta). According to Reuters, cases of malaria have increased by 76%, and people with both life-threatening diseases and common illnesses (like a sinus infection) go unseen due to the lack of proper health care and basic medical supplies. Due to the decaying infrastructure and the lack of international investments, Venezuela’s power supply has become a luxury and water is scarce. The government has resorted to rationing electricity for days at a time, and it’s become almost a daily occurrence (Polanco, Urrutia). Hopeless and in search of better living conditions, Venezuelans have sought refugee in neighboring countries as well as the US. Over 3 million Venezuelans have left the country, with over 600,000 of them seeking refugee in Colombia (Glass). Though the state of affairs continues to worsen, the government of Nicolas Maduro refuses to accept any humanitarian aid—food and medicine— offered by Colombia, Brazil or the US (Wyss). Protests within this past year have consisted of thousands of Venezuelans screaming anti-Maduro chants, throwing hundreds of Venezuelan Bolívares (Venezuela’s currency) along the ground, and holding signs pleading for help from the US and their neighboring countries. It’s safe to assume that Maduro’s decisions to increase the minimum wage by 300%—making it approximately 18,000 bolivars per month or $6.70 in the US—isn’t cutting it (Cohen). Women are selling their hair to neighboring countries, rotten meat and animal bones are being sold through the black market—for those who can afford it—and Venezuela’s capital Caracas has become the most violent city in the world (Venezuela Investigative Unit). While Venezuelans die each day of starvation, and protests continue along the streets of Venezuela, the government still refuses to acknowledge the severity of this crisis (as that would imply that their socialist model has failed). Needless to say, Maduro’s corrupt socialist utopia has led to the destruction of a nation, and the people of Venezuela want him out. President Nicolás Maduro: followed by a loyal few, resented by thousands Nicolás Maduro, a politician who succeeded Hugo Chavez upon his death, has simply watched as Venezuela has crumbled to pieces. Former bus driver, Maduro lacks the capability to maintain peace in explosive Venezuela. Consistently rigging elections, violating human rights, and refusing humanitarian assistance, Maduro has lost the loyalty of those who once supported socialism the most, the poor (Glass). While any support Maduro had from the majority of Venezuelans is declining at an accelerated pace, the Constituent National Assembly—which he created—as well as the leaders of arm forces and the supreme court—which were appointed by his government—remain loyal. For as long as Maduro has been in power, Venezuelans have been angry and disappointed, yet he has yet to be fazed by such hatred (Glass). On January 10th, claiming to have won the election (overseen by an electoral body made up of Maduro loyalists), Maduro was sworn into his second term in office (Glass). Clinging on to power, Maduro has arrested thousands of opposition legislators and maintained close to any supporters he has left. Being that those who do support him are part of many of the country’s important institutions, Maduro sees no incentive to step down regardless of the thousands of Venezuelans rallying against him each day. Though he is no longer recognized as Venezuela’s president by over 40 countries, Maduro continues to receive support by Russia, China and several other groups including the Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah (Ward; Armario). Being that he is a Chavista, a follower of Hugo Chavez’s political ideology (authoritarian socialism), he believes that he has pursued the best form of government for Venezuela (Ramírez). Living in the shadow of Venezuela’s past leftist strongman, Maduro will stop at nothing to pursue the socialist dream that once seemed plausible. Chavez’s political brand may have ‘worked’ for some time, but Venezuela has been a bomb waiting to explode for decades now, and Maduro was just icing on the cake. “Cuba-zuela”: the root of the crisis, explained Venezuela and Cuba have been allies since Fidel Castro seized power of Cuba in the early 1950s. Discretely supporting the rebels (Castro and his loyalists), Venezuela supplied Castro with funds and weapons to aid in the exile of Fulgencio Batista (Cuban dictator supported by the US). Shortly after, Cuba requested a $300 million dollar loan in the form of oil, which Castro then used to boost Cuba’s economy and break its economic dependence on the US (Oppmann). Then came “the special period”—the period after the Soviet Union discontinued their support for Cuba—which consisted of widespread food shortages, daily blackouts of electricity, and a mass exodus of refugees. Sound familiar? When it came to an end (late 1990s), a new relationship formed between two similar rebels: presidential elect Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro. The two became very close friends. Chavez even proclaimed that Cuba and Venezuela were “La Gran Patria”, signifying the unification of the two countries into one (Oppmann). In the early 2000s “Cuba-zuela” designed a barter deal which aided Cuba (once again) out of their economic crisis through the value of petroleum. Geoff Ramsey of the Washington Office states that this deal gave “Cuba access to the largest oil reserves on the planet, in exchange for sending doctors, coaches, intelligence advisers and military advisers” to Venezuela (qtd. in Oppmann). However, through this barter Chavez could comply with his political promises to provide medical assistance to the poor (Oppmann). Both dictators were now in good standing with their countries. However, this relationship didn’t benefit both parties for long. Chavez idolized Castro, and both dictators worked as the backbone of each other’s regime. When Chavez died in 2013, and Venezuela’s economy crashed, this alliance lived on through his successor, Nicolás Maduro. The roles had reversed and Cuban influence became stronger than ever. Venezuelans began to head over to Cuba for food and basic necessities that were no longer available in Venezuela (Oppmann). In exchange, Cuba continues to receive over 50,000 barrels of oil per day, even though Venezuela’s oil production has dropped significantly (Oppmann). Living in the footsteps of Chavez, Maduro wishes to maintain relations with Cuba, although it was this relationship which created the crisis to begin with. Venezuela has currently been buying oil through an international market to support Cuba, yet they cannot support their own economy enough to stay afloat (Oppman). Cuban trainers, advisors, and spies lie deep within the Venezuelan government, and it seems as though Cuba is the mastermind behind the Maduro regime (Francisco). Cuba needs Maduro to stay in power in order to maintain a stable economy, and Maduro needs them to support him while the Venezuelan people attempt to push him out of their country. It all comes down to oil You may be wondering, why Maduro couldn’t maintain the peace and prosperity of Venezuela, the way Chavez once did. The answer is simple: Venezuela is a Petrostate. According to the Council on Foreign relations, a petrostate has the following attributes:
The entirety of Chavez’s prosperity as a dictator depended on the fact that Venezuela was located on an oil mine. During his time in power, oil prices were at their highest, and oil being Venezuela’s biggest export, it consequently was also their main source of income. A country whose political and economic prosperity depends solely on such income, is bound to crash, and that’s exactly what happened. Oil prices and production went down, leaving the economy to crumble rapidly (Glass). While Maduro did waste all the opportunities he had to rebuild this resource filled nation, Chavez was the one who stripped the country of its oil wealth. In 2013 when Chavez died, oil sales crashed drastically (falling from more than $100 per barrel to under $30 per barrel), and Maduro was the lucky one who received the backlash of Chavez’s corruption and unstable dictatorship (Glass). Maduro, being the Chavista that he is, has spent his entire political career following the footsteps of his predecessor. He fell victim of Chavez’s innovative ways to spend money—spending on community programs for the poor to maintain his popularity—and never chose to improve Chavez’s ignorant ways of making that money. Maduro never thought to diversify Venezuela’s economy, and to stray away from the oil sector, thus leading the country to where it is today. Too busy trying to be the “son” of Chavez, Maduro let the deficit of oil, and his unrealistic political model drive Venezuela to the ground (Chinea). Needless to say, it is no surprise that this crisis is happening. It has been in the making for as long as these dictators have abused Venezuela’s resources. Venezuela needs a hero, and Guaidó has come to the rescue Juan Guaidó, the 35-year-old speaker of the National assembly, was declared interim president on January 23, 2019. Leader of the opposing party, Guaidó has been recognized as interim president by over 40 countries, and has brought a sense of hope to the people of Venezuela (RTÉ). Promising to end Cuban influence and to re-create democracy in Venezuela, he is the leader they have been praying for. He stands for everything Maduro rejects, and that’s exactly what this country needs. Just last week, Guaidó took matters into his own hands by organizing emergency humanitarian aid to be shipped through Venezuela’s neighboring countries. Maduro has denied such aid—he denies a humanitarian crisis exists—and has blocked off the border into Venezuela from Colombia. Although Guaidó will have to face the military and other officials loyal to Maduro, he will go to any extreme to help his people (Armario, Haberkorn). Guaidó is attempting to offer Venezuela the political awakening it needs to get back on its feet. Being that he has lived through the crisis as well, he wishes to fix the failures of the socialist dictators prior to him by following a US political model (Kiley). With the support of many countries, Guaidó has the power to (with time) make Venezuela a prosperous and developed country, through his new political agenda. 3 plausible outcomes for Venezuela, explained A new wave of hope has come about since Guaidó was elected interim president, yet Maduro seems to still have power over what Venezuela will and will not do. While the future of Venezuela is up in the air, there are three possible scenarios going forward. Scenario 1: Maduro Stays in Power Despite the protests and the declaration of Guaidó as interim president, Maduro seems to be relatively calm. Having immense support from the military, the supreme court, and other important institutions in Venezuela, it seems unlikely that he plans to back down. While over 40 countries have stated that they will no longer abide his orders (because he no longer considered president) he seems to be completely content with the support of Russia and China. The lack of support will lead to political and economic pressure—especially if these anti-Maduro countries can find a way to weaken and complicate their situation even more—but as of now Maduro believes he is what the country needs. If this scenario becomes a reality, Venezuela is going to need a miracle to survive. Scenario 2: Maduro Steps down, but his ideology stays alive Being the Chavista that he is, Maduro may be willing to step down if he can declare who will be in power next. That being said, this would be just as detrimental as if he stayed in power. As history shows, socialism does not seem to work very well for Venezuela, as it tends to lead to corruption, mismanagement and the destruction of this country. Another possibility could be that Maduro steps down but the loyalist (in the military, and other institutions) continue his ideology through force regardless of who is in power. If either of these scenarios plays out, the results are basically the same as scenario one, with maybe some hope that the politician Maduro picks might have learned from Maduro’s mistakes. Scenario 3: Guaidó takes over This would be the saving grace for Venezuela. All the international pressure and economic hardship may be too much for Maduro, ultimately forcing him to step down in a peaceful way. The opposition has said that they are willing to cut a deal with Maduro, to have him move as far away as possible from Venezuela, but without consequences of his actions (Kasperowicz). If Maduro takes this deal and the opposition takes over, then the country will on its journey towards democracy and will eventually recover from the crisis. The only challenge that could cause issues may be transitioning the people of Venezuela from a socialism—socialized medicine/health care, affordable food, government funding on social programs etc.—to democracy. This could pose problems because it would require a cut in government funding on some programs created by Chavez and Maduro that remain popular (Justo). While this could be extremely difficult and possibly lead to turmoil at first, it is the only way to fix the economic crisis once and for all. This could lead to the citizens losing faith in Guaidó and attempting to push him out. However, due to their past, it’s possible that they will be willing to work through the different lifestyle, in hopes that it will bring a brighter future. If this scenario becomes a reality, it will be a hard job to fix the tragedy that has gone on for so long, but with time Venezuela will flourish into a prosperous and developing country once again.
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